Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has come under fire for his late-game decision-making in the Eagles’ 22-21 loss to the Falcons on Monday Night Football.
He knew it was coming.
“It’s the business that we chose, however you want to say it,” Sirianni said on Wednesday afternoon. “And so I’ll gladly take the criticisms because I know they’re coming.”
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But on Wednesday, Sirianni doubled down on those decisions.
As a reminder, the Eagles were driving down the field up 3 points late in the fourth quarter on Monday night. At the Falcons’ 10-yard line, they threw a pass to Saquon Barkley that fell incomplete on 3rd-and-3 with just 1:46 left instead of keeping the ball on the ground and running out more clock against a Falcons team that didn’t have any timeouts.
And then on 4th down, the Eagles elected to kick a field goal to put them up 21-15 instead of going for it to ice the game. That backfired when the Falcons quickly drove 70 yards to score a touchdown and escape the Linc with an improbable win.
“I was completely convicted that kicking the field goal there was the right decision based off all my studies,” Sirianni said. “Now, I come back and I reevaluate it and I'm even more convicted, to be quite honest with you, because just everything that goes into that.”
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While it’s tough to separate the two decisions, because they clearly go together, both have been panned over the last couple of days.
Most of the public analytics models suggest the Eagles should have gone for it on 4th-and-3 from the Atlanta 10 yard line.
"My chart, what I say to do, is to kick it," Sirianni said. "Again, the chart is one thing. You guys can punch in the number to … there's about 20 websites right that you can punch in a number and and say, ‘What did it say here?’ So you all can see that. But I base it off of what my studies have been and my conviction on my studies."
A big part of the premise from the public analytics models is that there’s an indication it’s better to be up 3 points instead of 6, once you factor in the probability of converting. The thought behind it is that being up 6 invites the possibility of the Falcons going for a touchdown and potentially winning the game — an outcome that’s perhaps less likely if they’re only down 3 and playing for a field goal.
“Yeah, I don't believe that,” Sirianni said. “And if you look at the history of that call … Initially you go through it and I'm gonna try to drag myself through the mud as much as I possibly can. Because, quite frankly, that's the only way you get better, is to really look at your decisions, look at every decision you make and say, ‘Hey, did I make the right decision?’ And sometimes the play fails for whatever reason, but you got to still look at each decision.”
Sirianni said that after the loss, he asked the Eagles’ analytics department to do a study of teams in a similar situation as they were against Atlanta and went for it on fourth down.
Here were the parameters of that study:
• Last five years (2020-24)
• Under 4 minutes left in the fourth quarter
• Inside the opponent's 34-yard line (in FG range)
• Team is up 1-5 points
This search, which we recreated with Stathead, yielded 15 results. One of them was a 4th-and-13 with just 6 seconds left, but that was the last play of the game and designed to run out the clock. Throw that one away.
Twelve of the 15 were 4th-and-1s. Obviously, the Eagles might have been faced with that situation had they run the ball on third down, but they weren’t. So throw that one out as well.
That left two examples:
1. The 2022 Texans were up 3, went for a 4th-and-3 against the Cowboys from the Dallas 3 with 3:25 left, and failed. The Cowboys then drove down the field to score a touchdown and win the game.
2. The 2022 Jets were up 4, went for it on 4th-and-2 against the Bucs from the Tampa 2 with 2:17 left, and failed. The Bucs then drove down the field to score a touchdown and win the game.
Those were the two instances Sirianni cited on Wednesday as a reason why he felt vindicated in his decision to kick a field goal on Monday night. Of course, it’s probably fair to point out that the Texans had Jeff Driskel at quarterback and the Jets had Zach Wilson. The Eagles have Jalen Hurts.
Aside from feeling vindicated by the study from Tuesday morning, Sirianni explained a little more of his decision to kick the field goal on 4th down and put his defense back on the field needing a stop.
“I think there's something else that is very noticeable,” Sirianni said. “As an offensive coach … there's a stress to have to score a touchdown when you're giving the ball back to a team. There's a stress in that. And I get it, they get an extra down to do so, I understand all that, but there's a different stress being down six as opposed to three. So that's also my experience as an offensive coach.
“And you know what our defense had done, it really … Where we were getting hurt was in the run game, not necessarily them dropping back and passing. Obviously, we didn't do a good enough job on that drive, but to that point we had only given up with 15 points and we were really salty in the red zone up to that point.”
As for the 3rd down play call (the pass), Sirianni pointed out that on 2nd down, the Falcons were "bringing junk" inside and loading the box. That's why the 3rd-and-3 was a play call to the outside. He also mentioned that the Eagles have passed to win games in those situations before.
Because Kellen Moore is the offensive play-caller, they need to be in constant communication on game day too.
“If Kellen and I are just having that conversation right then, we've done a s–y job getting ready all week,” Sirianni said. “That conversation happens throughout. That conversation happened today of what we would be thinking in those scenarios. And it's just, ‘Hey, remember we said in this scenario,’ boom.
“So that's something that we prep for all week. And it's just little reminders within that. And because, you're right, calling the game is one thing, managing the game’s another thing, but they have aspects of meshing together.”
Sirianni, in his fourth season as Eagles head coach, is more of a CEO-type head coach in 2024. Vic Fangio is running the defense and Moore is running the offense.
That frees up Sirianni to do his weekly studies of situational football and to focus on game management on Sundays (and Mondays). So if you think Sirianni screwed up the game management on Monday night, then it’s probably even more infuriating because that’s such a major part of his role this season.
During the week, Sirianni said he spends a ton of time going over situations and talking to his coaches about them. During games, he has some voices in his ear with the analytical analysis, but ultimately it’s his call.
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