It’s late July, training camp hasn’t even started yet and opening day is still six weeks away. All of which means it’s way too early to start making predictions about the 2024 Eagles season.
We’re going to do it anyway.
Who’s going to make the Pro Bowl? Who’s getting benched? What kind of numbers will Jalen Hurts put up?
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We won’t know for 5 ½ months. But we can guess.
So on the eve of training camp, here’s our way-too-early 2024 Eagles predictions.
1. What about the new guy?: Not easy to project Saquon Barkley’s season. With the Giants, he averaged from 127 scrimmage yards per game in 2018 to 66 in 2021, and he was at 89 last year. Which Saquon will the Eagles get? There’s two ways to look at Barkley – has his production decreased because he's been on terrible teams with terrible offenses and terrible coaches and no other weapons? Or was it because he’s got over 1,500 career touches and he’s just physically not the same guy anymore? I know having talent around him – at receiver, at quarterback, on the offensive line - will help a lot. I’m guessing Barkley’s 2024 season is closer to 2022 – when he averaged 103 scrimmage yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry with 57 catches and 11 total touchdowns – than last year, when along with those 89 total yards per game he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry and caught 41 passes and scored one TD. Here’s my guess: 1,281 rushing yards, 48 catches, 1,564 scrimmage yards and seven total touchdowns in his first year with the Eagles.
2. Points for, points against: Even with all their issues, the Eagles still ranked seventh in the NFL with 25.5 points per game (although that figure dropped to 16.1 the last seven games). Last time the Eagles averaged 30 points per game was 1948, when they set a franchise record at 31.1 and won the first of two consecutive NFL Championships. But with this talent? I think 30 per game is a reasonable expectation. They were close at 29.6 in Chip Kelly’s second year, 2014. I’ll go 30.2. On defense, the Eagles ranked 30th last year, allowing 25.2 points per game (31 over their last eight games). I expect them to be closer to 2022 than 2023. Two years ago, the Eagles allowed just 20.2 points per game. Last time they were under 20 was the 2017 Super Bowl year, when they gave up just 18.4 per game under Jim Schwartz. I think something between 22 and 23 points allowed per game is fair. Let’s say 22.4.
Philadelphia Eagles
3. Most interceptions: C.J. Gardner-Johnson had six interceptions in 12 games in 2022 (but has only six in 45 other games). Darius Slay has nine in four seasons with the Eagles and 28 in his career. Reed Blankenship has four INTs in 21 career games when he's played on defense. Kelee Ringo is the youngest Eagle ever with an interception, and Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean will likely have their opportunities as well. So who will lead the 2024 Eagles in interceptions? I’m actually going with Blankenship. The ball seems to find him. Now, who knows, he may not even finish the season as the starter. Vic Fangio may want to get Sydney Brown on the field when he’s healthy. And Blankenship didn’t finish last year very well (who did?). But if he remains the starter, I could see him picking off four or five passes this year.
4. Pro Bowlers: Without Jason Kelce, the Eagles are down one guy who you mark down as an automatic Pro Bowler before the season even starts. He made the Pro Bowl in each of his last five seasons and should have made it in 2017 and 2018. But Lane Johnson is a lock for his sixth if he’s healthy. Landon Dickerson might make it every year now that he’s got that reputation as one of the NFC’s top interior linemen. Jalen Hurts will make it because every quarterback makes it. You know A.J. Brown is going to his third in a row. After that? Saquon Barkley should have the production to get there. On defense, the closest thing to a lock is Slay, who’s made the last three Pro Bowls and six of the last seven. But he’s also 33 and you know how it goes with older corners. I think Jalen Carter will make his first. Josh Sweat made his only Pro Bowl two years ago and could be in the mix if he can get in that 12-15 sack range. Jordan Mailata played well enough to go last year but needs to make the first one before he we can project him as a Pro Bowler. So I’ll go with Johnson, Dickerson, Hurts, Brown and Barkley on offense and Slay and Carter on defense.
5. First Player Benched: There’s a fair chance Tyler Steen will be able to handle right guard. He’s a big, athletic kid and was a 3rd-round pick for a reason. But looking at the 22 projected starters? I’d say he’s most likely to get benched at some point during the season. That’s not a knock on him as much as feeling pretty good about the other starters. Steen has never played guard before, other than one start last year with mixed results, and the Eagles have some veteran options with former 1st-round pick Mekhi Becton (who also hasn’t played guard before), former Temple Owl Matt Hennessey and one-time Texans 2nd-round pick Max Scharping, who’s played over 2,000 snaps at guard. And Jeff Stoutland has shown in the past he won't hesitate to make changes when he thinks it makes sense.
6. A.J. and DeVonta: Brown has had 1,496 and 1,456 yards in his two years with the Eagles and Smith has had 1,196 and 1,066 yards in his two years playing alongside Brown. I expect Brown to be between 1,400 and 1,500 again and I want to bump Smith up closer to 1,200 yards, because he’s that good, but I don’t know if he’ll get enough targets to put up those kind of numbers. Only four teams have ever had two 1,200-yard receivers – the 1995 Lions with Herman Moore and Brett Perriman, the 2000 Rams with Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, the 2005 Cards with Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald and the 2014 Broncos with Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. I’ve got the Eagles joining that short list. Whenever I see DeVonta Smith, I see a 1,200-yard guy. I’ll go with 1,433 yards for Brown and 1,203 for Smith.
7. Most sacks: The candidates are Josh Sweat, who had 18 ½ sacks in 2021 and 2022 before dropping off to 6 ½ last year, including eight games to finish the season without a sack; Bryce Huff, who had 10 sacks in a breakthrough year with the Jets; last year’s 1st-round pick Nolan Smith, who’s hoping for a bust-out season after a lost rookie year; and 36-year-old veteran Brandon Graham, whose 73 sacks are 4th-most in franchise history (three behind Clyde Simmons). Realistically, Sweat and Huff are most likely to lead the Eagles in sacks in 2024 and I’m going to go with Sweat because he has such a track record of consistency despite the way last year ended. Sweat is one of just 11 NFL players with at least six sacks in each of the last four years and I’m looking for a bounce-back year into double digits for the former 4th-round pick. I’m predicting 11 ½ sacks for Sweaty.
8. Biggest surprise: I think there’s a sense that with Saquon Barkley here now none of the other running backs will really be much of a factor. But Kellen Moore’s history is that RB2 is an important part of the offense. When he had Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas, Tony Pollard got a ton of touches, even before Zeke’s dropoff, and with the Chargers last year Joshua Kelley was an important part of the offense even with Austin Ekeler as the No. 1 back. Considering the wear and tear on Barkley with the Giants and the rapid decline we often see with running backs with as many touches as he’s had, I expect Moore to involve Gainwell quite a bit – let’s say about seven touches per game or about 120 for the season. Look for that to translate into close to 600 scrimmage yards for the former 5th-round pick, who’s in the final year of his rookie contract.
9. The QB: If you take Jalen Hurts’ numbers through the Week 12 game against the Bills and then project them over a full season, here’s what you’re looking at: A franchise-record 4,168 passing yards, a career-high 26 touchdown passes, 14 interceptions, a 94.9 passer rating and 68 percent accuracy – 2nd-highest in franchise history. Still too many interceptions but definitely a big-time MVP-level performance. The roof caved in and we all know how the season ended. But if Hurts can put up those numbers over three months with a play caller who was about to get fired in an offense his head coach called “stale” when he wasn't 100 percent healthy, I have no doubt he can match that or do even better with Kellen Moore running the offense. The interceptions have to come down, but with Brown, Smith, Dallas Goedert and Saquon Barkley around him, I think Hurts has a very good season. I’ll go with 27 touchdown passes, nine interceptions, 67.6 percent accuracy and 4,229 passing yards. And, no, he won’t get benched, traded, cut or put on the practice squad.
10. 2024 Eagles: OK, what does it all add up to? This is a strange season because there’s been so much change and there are so many unknowns. This isn’t a normal team coming off an 11-win season and the playoffs. It’s a team that suffered an unprecedented collapse at the end of last year, and I don’t think anybody knows if that collapse was a sign of things to come or if all the changes – on the roster and to the coaching staff – will right the ship immediately. Bottom line: I believe this is a playoff team and I believe this is potentially a Super Bowl team. The NFC is wide open. There are other good teams – the 49ers, Lions, Packers, Cowboys – but there’s nobody like in the AFC, where the Chiefs block everyone else. I’m going to go with 12-5 and for the 20thstraight year the NFC East will have a new champion.
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