In Roob's Observations: Just how freaking good is Quinyon Mitchell?

Where are the deep balls? How many starters are left from the 2022 Super Bowl defense? And just exactly how freaking good is Quinyon Mitchell?

We tackle those questions and a bunch of others in our second Roob’s 10 Random Eagles Observations of NFC Championship Game weekend. Click here for the first batch.

One more win and two very important things will happen: 1) The Eagles will be on their way to another Super Bowl and 2) We’ll have a daily 10 Observations from New Orleans! 

1. Where are the big pass plays?

Since Week 10, Kenny Pickett has completed as many passes of 40 yards or more as Jalen Hurts. Two for Pickett in 39 attempts, two for Hurts in 197 pass attempts. The disappearing big pass play in the Eagles’ offense is definitely a concern going into Sunday. They have been winning without explosives, but it’s just a lot easier to beat really good teams if you’re hitting those big plays in the passing game. In nine games through Week 9, Hurts had nine 40-yard completions, tied with Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy for most in the league. His only 40-yarders since the Jacksonville game are a 44-yarder to A.J. Brown in the first Cowboys game and a 43-yarder to Barkley in the first Washington game. Now, this isn’t entirely Hurts’ fault. Brown dropped what would have been a 45-yarder against the Rams, and Kellen Moore has adopted a low-risk play calling philosophy the second half of the season. And, hey, that’s been working. But as the opponents get tougher – which they are at this point – you need to do more, and that’s where the Eagles are now. Maybe they can beat the Commanders and win a Super Bowl with the same approach. But those big plays just make life a whole lot easier for the offense.

2. The value of Kenny Gainwell

Kenny Gainwell’s 5.1 career postseason rushing average is 15^th-highest all-time among running backs with at least 40 carries and 5^th-highest among active non-quarterbacks behind teammate Saquon Barkley (6.3), former Eagle Raheem Mostert (6.0), Jahmyr Gibbs (5.8) and Deebo Samuel (5.5). Gainwell trails only Barkley in Eagles history among running backs (although Donovan McNabb at 5.9 is also higher). Just a really solid backup running back. He never knows when - or if - he's going to play and that's a tough role. But he handles it beautifully.

3. Almost an entirely new defense

It’s crazy that the Eagles are back in the NFC Championship Game with only three defensive starters left on the roster from the 2022 Super Bowl defense – Darius Slay, Josh Sweat and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (who wasn’t here last year). Other defensive starters in the 2022 NFC Championship Game at the Linc vs. the 49ers: Linval Joseph, Fletcher Cox, Javon Hargrave, Haason Reddick, T.J. Edwards, Kyzir White, James Bradberry and Marcus Epps.

4. Just how good is a healthy Dallas Goedert?

It was a little scary when Dallas Goedert missed the first two practices of the week, especially in light of his two extended layoffs this year – three games with a hamstring, four games with a knee. How valuable is Goedert? Not only has he now caught more postseason passes than anybody in franchise history and all but 10 tight ends in history, not only has he caught at least four passes in eight straight postseason games – the 2^nd-longest streak ever by a tight end – he’s caught 80.7 percent of his targets this year, one of only three tight ends to catch at least 50 passes and 80 percent of their targets. The others are George Kittle (83.0) and Pat Freiermuth (82.9). Goedert’s 50 yards per game including postseason is 6^th-highest among tight ends this year. And get this: According to the NFL’s NextGen stats, in the 12 games Goedert played this year, the Eagles averaged 6.2 yards per rushing attempt and in the games he missed they averaged 4.8. Goedert was back at practice Friday and was listed as a full participant, which is great news for the Eagles and especially Jalen Hurts, who seems more comfortable throwing to Goedert than anybody else right now.

5A. I was wrong about Oren Burks

I wrote in last week's Obs that I expected Jeremiah Trotter Jr. to get a considerable amount of playing time on defense against the Rams with Nakobe Dean out and I thought he was the Eagles’ best option, ahead of veteran Oren Burks. Wrong again. As it turned out, Burks played the entire game and played really well. The Rams never really challenged him in the passing game, with Matt Stafford targeting him just twice and going 1-for-2 for minus-one yard. Now, the challenge is much bigger Sunday because Austin Ekeler is an elite pass catcher out of the backfield. His 475 receptions since his rookie year in 2017 are 3^rd-most in the NFL (behind Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey), and he killed the Eagles in the first game, with season highs of 8-for-89 – the most yards against the Eagles by a running back since 2018, when Saquon Barkley had 99 – then didn’t play in the rematch. Burks was impressive last Sunday and the Eagles need it again against the Commanders.

5B. One thing about Jayden Daniels is he spreads the ball around unlike any other rookie quarterback ever. Seven Commanders have 24 or more receptions this year (including the postseason) and six have at least 450 yards. This is such an intriguing matchup between the NFL’s hottest quarterback and the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense. 

6. The Quinyon Mitchell Is Incredible Section

6A. Opposing quarterbacks when targeting Quinyon Mitchell in the postseason: 3-for-8 for 14 yards. 

6B. That’s the lowest defensive passer rating by a corner in the postseason since the Packers’ Jaire Alexander had a perfect 0.0 in 2020 (on 1-for-7 for minus-3 yards).

6C. I’ll be shocked if Mitchell isn’t a Pro Bowler in 2025. And many years beyond.

6D. The Eagles have had some Pro Bowl corners recently – Darius Slay, Asante Samuel, Troy Vincent – but they’re last homegrown Pro Bowl corner is Lito Sheppard, their 1^st-round pick in 2002. 

7. Saquon > Hall of Famers

Thurman Thomas, Edgerrin James, Gale Sayers, Leroy Kelly, Larry Csonka and Eric Dickerson are all Hall of Fame running backs. Saquon Barkley had more 60-yard touchdown runs this year than all of them had combined in their entire career.

8. Buddy just never got offense right

Buddy Ryan coached three playoff games as head coach of the Eagles - a conference semifinal vs. the Bears at Soldier Field in 1988 (the Fog Bowl) and home wild-card games vs. the Rams and Washington in 1989 and 1989. The Eagles had 44 offensive possessions in those three games, and those 44 possessions resulted in 20 punts, nine turnovers, six field goals, two missed field goals, four unsuccessful fourth downs and two end of half or end of game. And one touchdown. The Eagles went 10-for-42 on third down in those three games and were outscored 61-25. They’re one of only two teams to lose playoff games in three straight seasons by at least two possessions. The 49ers did it from 1985 through 1987. The Eagles are one of only three teams in NFL history to reach the playoffs three straight years and score just one touchdown in that three-year span. The others are the 1988 through 1990 Bears and 1999 through 2001 Buccaneers. 

9. Nick knows what he's doing

It’s funny how this time of year nobody ever complains about the way the Eagles practice. You hear it all summer from analysts and broadcasters who aren’t even at training camp and from former players who believe that because they had to endure live three-hour two-a-days all summer then current players should as well. The reality is that Eagles practices during training camp may be shorter and less frequent and without tackling to the ground, but they’re fast-paced, intense and productive. Training camp isn’t designed to beat guys down anymore. It’s designed to prepare them for a long season, Nick Sirianni understands how to get his guys ready. We go through this every summer and the same people keep harping on how practices are too easy. And every year the Eagles are ready for the start of the season and in the playoffs at the end of the season. But it won’t stop. We’ll hear it all over again next August. Because there will always be experts who don’t know what they’re talking about.

10. That wasn't really that long ago

The Eagles have won more postseason games since 2003 than before 2003. 

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