Thoughts on why Howie Roseman hasn’t re-signed anybody yet, Nolan Smith’s jump from Year 1 to Year 2 and a look at A.J. Brown’s chances to make a third straight Pro Bowl.
It’s a Week 16 edition of Roob’s 10 Random Eagles Observations and I can’t even imagine a week without Roob’s Observations!
1. We’ve spent so much time talking about how efficient Jalen Hurts has been throwing the football, but he’s quietly been very good running the ball, too, and we’re not talking about Brotherly Shove or short-yardage plays but out in the open field. Hurts looks fast, which hasn’t been the case the last few years late in the season as he’s battled lower-leg injuries. The pattern we’ve seen in the past is that Hurts is fast and explosive in training camp and maybe the first half of the season before the wear and tear takes its toll and he loses that dimension of his game. But Hurts has managed to keep his ankles and legs healthy this year and it shows. He had a 35-yard run in the Panthers game – 2nd-longest of his career – and a 23-yarder Sunday against the Steelers. Since he became a full-time starter in 2020, he only had one other December run of at least 23 yards. So two of his three-longest December runs have come in the last two weeks. The Eagles know if they’re going to win a Super Bowl they need Hurts to be close to 100 percent healthy, and they’ve gone to great lengths to do everything possible to make that the case. That’s a nice by-product of running the ball 37 times per game. You’re keeping Hurts out of harm’s way on 37 plays every Sunday. The Eagles even put Hurts on a carefully designed program during the mini-bye after the Thursday game vs. Washington targeted to strengthen his legs and lower body, and it looks like it’s paid off. Hurts looks healthy and he looks fast and that makes him more dangerous than he has been late in the season since he was a rookie. That’s good news for the Eagles and bad news for whoever they’re playing.
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2. If the Eagles finish the season with the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL they’ll become the first team ranked No. 1 in pass defense with two rookie defensive backs starting eight or more games since the 1955 Steelers. That Steelers team went 4-8 and ranked 11th overall out of 12 teams in overall defense, but they were No. 1 in pass defense with rookie starters Richie McCabe at corner and Dick Doyle at safety. McCabe only started five more games during his Steelers career and Doyle never played for the Steelers again. Wild guess that Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean will have longer careers with the Eagles than McCabe and Doyle did with the Steelers.
3. Ricky Watters is the only Eagle ever with two 100-yard rushing games in a season against Washington. In Week 6 of 1995, he had 139 yards in a 37-34 win at the Vet, and in Week 13 he had 124 yards in a 14-7 win at RFK. The only other players with 120 yards against Washington twice in a season are Jim Brown with the Browns in 1963 (162 and 125) and Tiki Barber with the Giants in 2006 (123 and 234). Saquon Barkley had 146 in the first Eagles-Commanders game this year.
4. Why hasn’t Howie Roseman re-signed anybody yet this year? The Eagles have plenty of candidates for contract extensions. Josh Sweat, Zack Baun, Milton Williams and Mekhi Becton are among the Eagles unsigned beyond this year, and they can’t afford to lose some of those. Isaiah Rodgers and Kenny Gainwell are also unsigned after 2024. Most years, Roseman will sign two or three guys during the season, well before they hit free agency and the Eagles lose exclusive negotiating rights. But he hasn’t this year, and if you’re wondering why you just have to look back to 2022, when the Eagles were off to a similar fast start and Roseman also passed on in-season extensions. At the Combine in Indianapolis after the season, he explained why: “Usually, we like to sign guys early and sign guys during the season. And because of how hot we started, how well we did, and how many free agents we had, we thought it would create a different dynamic if we started to pick one guy and not another guy. We understood that could cost us in the end, but we felt like it was worthwhile because of the opportunity to potentially win a championship.” The concern was that signing some guys but not others could damage the locker room vibe. It’s a risky move, because guys like Baun and Becton have seen their value increase every week. But locker room chemistry is so important to this team that it does make sense.
5. The Eagles are the only NFL team with two linebackers with three sacks, eight tackles for loss and an interception. The only other year they’ve had two linebackers with those numbers since the NFL began tracking tackles for loss in 1999 was 2013 with DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks.
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6. Nolan Smith’s jump from one sack last year to 5 ½ so far this year is the biggest increase by an Eagle from Year 1 to Year 2 since 1998, when Al Wallace had 6.0 sacks after not recording a sack as a rookie (when he played in only one game). The only other larger increase from Year 1 to Year 2 was by defensive tackle Andy Harmon, who had 7.0 sacks in 1992 after being held sackless as a rookie in 1991.
7. Can A.J. Brown make the Pro Bowl for a third straight season despite missing three games? He should. Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown are locks, but there are four WR spots for each conference and Brown’s competition for the final one will come from Terry McLaurin and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. With three weeks left, Smith-Njigba has 85-for-994 with 5 TDs, McLaurin 68-for-969 with 11 TDs and Brown is at 56-for-946 with five TDs. But Brown leads the NFL with his 16.9 yards per catch (minimum 50 catches), and his 12.3 yards per target is nearly 1 ½ yards higher than anybody else in the league. And his 86.0 yards per game is 5th-highest in the NFL and 3rd-highest in the NFC. If McLaurin, Smith-Njigba and Brown all continue at their current rate, Brown will finish with 1,204 yards, Smith-Njigba with 1,207 and McLaurin 1,176. How valuable is Brown? The Eagles are 11-0 this year when he plays (and 38-10 since he got here). The only Eagles wide receiver to make three straight Pro Bowls is Mike Quick, who made it five years in a row from 1983 through 1987. Brown should join Quick this year, and Quinyon Mitchell could certainly help his chances if he shuts down McLaurin again Sunday.
8. Jalen Hurts is 43-11 in 54 starts since Nick Sirianni’s roots growing underground speech.
9. With the Lions, Vikings and Eagles all sitting at 12-2, this is the first time in NFL history three teams in the same conference have been 12-2 or better after 14 games. Matter of fact, it’s the first time in nine years that even two have – the Panthers and Cards were both 12-2 in 2015. Before that 2007 (Patriots and Colts in the AFC, Packers and Cowboys in the NFC). The most wins ever by a team that wasn’t a No. 1 seed is 14 by the 1986 Bears, 1998 Falcons and 2004 Patriots, all in 16-game seasons. The 1986 Bears went 14-2 but were seeded 2nd behind the 14-2 Giants. The Bears lost at home to Washington in the conference semis, and the Giants beat the Broncos in Super Bowl XXI in Los Angeles. The 1998 Falcons went 14-2 and were No. 2 seed behind the 15-1 Vikings but went into Minneapolis and beat the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game before losing to the Broncos in Super Bowl XXXIII in Miami. Thanks, Dennis Green. And the 2004 Patriots went 14-2 and were seeded No. 2 in the AFC behind the 15-1 Steelers but won the AFC Championship Game in Pittsburgh.
10. The Eagles are 22-5 over the last three years in one-possession games, an .815 winning percentage. The last team over .800 in any three-year span in one-possession games is the 2012-2014 Colts, who were 19-4 (.826). The Eagles are 7-1 this year in one-possession games, tied with the Vikings and behind only the Chiefs, who are 10-0. Their only one-possession loss was 22-21 to the Falcons in the home opener back in Week 2.
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