The 1-1 Eagles run into an offensive juggernaut in their second road game of the season, traveling to New Orleans to take on the Saints. While this may not be the most successful weekend the team will have this season, let’s see if we can make it a profitable one for us.
Eagles at Saints – Sunday 1:00pm
Point spread/ML: Eagles +2.5/+125 Saints -2.5/-150
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Total points (O/U) – 49.5
Analysis: New Orleans averages more than 400 yards and 45 points a game. This should hit the over easily. I can’t really explain the point spread. It’s almost begging you to take the Saints. The spread gives the home team three points in any game, so it’s saying that the Eagles are, at worst, on a par with the Saints, if not a bit better. Watching these two teams thus far, I can’t say that.
Picks: Saints -2.5, OVER 49.5
Passing Props (O/U)
- Jalen Hurts: 225.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing TD (+140/-180), 31.5 attempts, 20.5 completions
- David Carr: 235.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing TD (-105/-125), 31.5 attempts, 21.5 completions
Analysis: Hurts was very accurate (23-of-30) last week in a losing effort, but he didn’t make a lot of downfield throws, and his receivers didn’t do a whole lot after the catch. I think the Eagles will try to run the ball early to keep the amount of possessions low, and that could limit his production. Carr has thrown a total of 39 passes through two games, largely because his offense is so efficient, he hasn’t had to throw much.
NFL
Picks: Carr OVER 1.5 passing TD; Hurts OVER 20 completions
Rushing Props (O/U)
Saquon Barkley – 75.5 yards, 17.5 attempts
Alvin Kamara – 65.5 yards, 15.5 attempts
Jalen Hurts – 40.5 yards, 9.5 attempts
Analysis: Kamara averages 5.7 yards per carry. The Eagles defense allows 6.5 yards per carry. Barring a fundamental change in Vic Fangio’s defense, this trend wants me to hammer Kamara’s overs. Along those same lines, the Saints’ run defense is second in the NFL through two weeks. That won’t keep me away from sprinkling some on the Barkley over for yards, considering the teams New Orleans has faced (Carolina/Dallas) can’t run a lemonade stand, let alone a football.
Picks: Kamara OVER 65.5 yards, OVER 15.5 attempts; Barkley OVER 75.5 yds, Hurts OVER 40.5 yards
Receiving Props (O/U)
- DeVonta Smith – 75.5 yards, 6.5 receptions
- Chris Olave – 65.6 yards, 5.5 receptions
- Rashid Shaheed – 50.5 yards, 3.5 receptions
- Dallas Goedert – 40.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- Alvin Kamara – 30.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- Jahan Dotson – 20.5 yards, 2.5 receptions
- Saquon Barkley – 20.5 yards, 3.5 receptions
Analysis: Smith has had 7 catches for at least 75 yards in each game, and without A.J. Brown, he’s all they really have. I’m holding out hope that Goedert can make a bigger impact on the passing game than he has.
Picks: Smith OVER receptions, OVER yards; Kamara OVER yards
Anytime Touchdowns
- Kamara – -180
- Barkley – -160
- Jamal Williams – +115
- Taysom Hill – +115
- Hurts – +120
- Smith – +140
- Olave – +150
- Shaheed – +190
- Goedert – +260
- Dotson – +400
Analysis: I feel like Kamara and Barkley (maybe even Hurts as well) are locks to score in this one. Shaheed is their long-ball threat; if the Eagles look to blitz, he could cash as well. Dotson hasn’t shown me he’s a part of the offense just yet.
Picks: Kamara, Barkley, Hurts, Shaheed