Former Sixers sharpshooter JJ Redick has turned into an extremely good NBA media personality.
Between his own podcast, where he co-hosts great interviews with current players and coaches, and his gig at ESPN as an analyst and color commentator, Redick is bringing smart and incisive basketball analysis to the masses while also being entertaining. He's got a bright future.
But even Redick gets it wrong now and then, and on Monday morning he admitted on ESPN's "First Take" that he maybe misjudged the Sixers' second-round series vs. the Heat.
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You can watch Redick's moment of humility below:
Here's his explanation for flip-flopping on his pick:
NBA
"REDICK: I've talked about the Miami Heat all season as being one of the most dangerous teams. I had them winning the series with or without Embiid when the playoffs started. Um, I'm gonna change that pick.
"MOLLY QERIM: Now we're talking!
"REDICK: After these last two games, maybe I was getting caught up.
"[...]
"REDICK: The thing Miami has to solve is the non-Jimmy Butler minutes. He played most all of Game 3 and Game 4, I think it was only 16 minutes he wasn't on the floor. They lost those minutes by 22 points. For him, can he go 45, 46 minutes for three straight games given the amount of play-making he has to do?"
It's okay! I think we should be totally fine with changing your pick after acquiring new information. That's informed decision-making, and it should be rewarded!
(That said, you can also get clowned for being wrong initially. Consider yourself clowned, JJ.)
Redick, unsurprisingly, is right. Sixers fans were so scared of surviving non-Embiid minutes during the playoffs that it's easy to forget other teams have those same problems.
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Without Butler, who is equal parts initiator, facilitator, and bucket-getter for the Heat, the Miami offense is simply uninspired. It obviously doesn't help that Kyle Lowry is significantly hampered by a hamstring injury, and that's the kind of new information that we should be okay with influencing a change of heart in a prediction. If Lowry's healthy during this series, the Heat are probably fine. With this current Lowry, I think they're in legit trouble.
(Of course, if Joel Embiid is healthy during this series I think the Sixers could win in five. It's all relative, baby.)
If Redick has changed his mind, that's certainly good news for Sixers fans hoping to pull off the comeback. I think the Sixers win this series in six games. They're just better.
And a longtime NBAer now seems to agree.