Sixers megastar Joel Embiid spent basically all of Feburary as the all-around frontrunner in the NBA's MVP race, from betting odds to the court of public opinion. There were still people fighting for Denver star Nikola Jokic (a totally fair argument, if one I disagree with) and Bulls star DeMar DeRozan (great season, but no) but Embiid was the clear-cut No. 1.
Yet now, as the calendar has turned to March and we approach the stretch run of the 2021-22 NBA season, a late challenger approaches: third-year Grizzlies dynamo Ja Morant, who has put Memphis on his back all year long and is recently turning out nightly highlight reels that simply defy logic and reason.
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Morant exploded for 52 points on Monday night, becoming the first Grizzlies player ever to score 50+ points, and did it with style. Please enjoy this sizzle reel from Morant's spectacular night, from the super-poster dunk to the logo three to the buzzer-beater circus shot:
The guy is simply electric.
But does a recent string of explosive performances - Morant is averaging 34.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game on 51.4% shooting over his last 16 games, 11 of which were Grizzlies wins - mean he's suddenly the MVP favorite? Oh boy.
NBA
Grizzlies head coach Taylor Jenkins made his case after Monday night's dominant win:
"I think he's absolutely in that conversation, and absolutely deserving of being, you know, an MVP. I mean there's a lot of great players playing at an extremely high level, and I always come back to, you've got a team playing winning basketball, you've got an individual player on that team playing significant winning basketball [...] the level he's playing at and how it all impacts our winning, at the end of the day, that's the true definition of MVP. So, you know, I'm not the decision-maker but it's pretty obvious to me that he's the MVP."
What else is the head coach going to say? He's clearly in his guy's camp, and he should be. That's the answer any Sixers fan would want Doc Rivers to give about Embiid's MVP candidacy.
But on Tuesday morning, the larger NBA world started echoing Jenkins' sentiments. Here's ESPN analyst Jay Williams on Morant's rise:
"I think he's slightly ahead, in my opinion, of Joel Embiid and [Nikola] Jokic for the MVP right now. They have the third-best record in the entire NBA, the second-best record since the All-Star break."
Okay, we might need to relax.
This feels like a case of recency bias, compounded by our inability to resist a good highlight.
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Morant has been unbelievable this year, doing truly transcendent stuff that has accelerated Memphis way ahead of schedule into the NBA's elite tier. If Embiid and Jokic weren't doing the things they are on a nightly basis, Morant would of course be in the conversation - and right now I'm fine with him being on the fringes, along with DeRozan.
But Embiid is still the MVP. FanDuel still has Embiid as the odds-on favorite to win the award as of Tuesday afternoon:
- Embiid +110
- Jokic +310
- Antetokounmpo +500
- DeRozan +1100
- Morant +1300
And there's a reason: Embiid's numbers are all simply better than Morant's.
You want traditional stats? Here you go:
Morant: 27.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 6.6 apg, 1.2 spg | 49.8 FG/34.4 3P/75.4 FT
Embiid: 29.8 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.5 bpg | 49.4 FG/36.7 3P/81.5 FT
Embiid leads the league in points per game, is only two assists per game behind a primary ballhandler, and shoots better from deep and from the free throw line than a point guard. C'mon.
You want advanced stats? Here you go:
Morant: .181 WS/48, 57.8% TS, 25.3 PER, 39.8 PTS/100, ORAT 116, DRAT 111
Embiid: .267 WS/48, 61.3% TS, 31.9 PER, 45.2 PTS/100, ORAT 119, DRAT 104
The real winners here are the enormous gulf in win shares per 48 and Embiid's net rating compared to Morant's. You can't simply forget that defense counts, and Embiid has a better offensive and defensive rating than Morant.
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And then you simply watch the games, and while Morant is an obvious sparkplug virtuoso, Embiid is a dominant force, the kind of unstoppable talent that takes the league by storm. He's the best player in the NBA.
Morant rocks, and I don't want to do anything to diminish the way he's played this season. What an absolute baller.
He's just not on Embiid's level yet, and that's totally fine.