What the conventional wisdom tells us about the Phillies' chances going into the NLDS

While waiting impatiently for Game 1 of the National League Division Series to start Saturday at Citizens Bank Park, here’s a look at a few commonly accepted truisms about the postseason:

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM NO. 1

The division winners who earned byes (Phillies, Dodgers Yankees, Guardians) are actually at a disadvantage going into the playoffs because the 5-day layoff between the end of the regular season and their next live action can cause them to lose their mojo.

IS THAT REALLY A THING?

It certainly seems to have been since baseball expanded the playoffs two seasons ago.

Five teams that each won at least 100 regular season games (2022 and 2023 Braves, 2022 and 2023 Dodgers, 2023 Orioles) failed to advance. And that only hints at the carnage. Those division winners didn’t even take any of those best-of-five series to the limit, going an aggregate 3-15.

The 99-win Yankees advanced to the 2022 ALCS before being knocked off by the Astros, who have been the only exception to the rule so far. Houston earned a bye with 106 regular season wins in 2022 and went on to beat the Phillies in the World Series. Last season they lost in the ALCS.

So three of the four teams that have been to the World Series in this era (including the Rangers beating the Diamondbacks last year) have been wild cards.

HOW DOES IT IMPACT THE PHILLIES?

They’ve had success the last two seasons entering the playoffs through the side door, making it to the World Series in ’22 and coming within one home win of returning a year ago. Despite that, manager Rob Thomson made it clear going into this season that his goal was to win the NL East with a good enough record to avoid the possibility of a wild card round ambush.

With that mission accomplished, the biggest plus for the Phillies is that they’ll have home field advantage in both the Division Series and the World Series if they get that far. They could also have that edge in the NLCS if the Dodgers make another early exit.

The numbers explain why this matters. The Phillies were 54-26 (.675) at Citizens Bank Park this year, the best home record of any team in baseball. They were 41-41 on the road, the only team still playing that didn’t have a winning away record.

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM NO. 2

Teams that are hot at the end of the regular season tend to stay hot in the playoffs. Teams that are cold tend get an early vacation.

IS THAT REALLY A THING?

There’s anecdotal evidence that emotion can carry a team a long way. A classic example came in 2004 when the Red Sox lost the first three games in the NLCS to their arch rival Yankees and then made an unprecedented comeback to win. By all rights, they should have been physically and emotionally exhausted. Instead, they rolled right into the World Series and swept the well-rested Cardinals.

On the flip side, the 2007 Phillies won a franchise record 102 games despite losing 9 of their last 14 games going into the postseason. That trend, too, carried over. They were eliminated by the Cardinals in the first round.

HOW DOES IT IMPACT THE PHILLIES?

Franchise icon Larry Bowa repeated one of his favorite mantras during a recent conversation. “You can’t flip the switch,” he said.

They need to flip the switch.

 They’re the only National League team left standing that had a losing record (4-6) in its last 10 games. They’re barely .500 (40-38) since July 1.

Past isn’t always prologue. They’re apparently healthy. They’ve been a streaky team. But if they don’t get hot quickly, their season could once again end without owner John Middleton getting his trophy back.

CONVENTIONAL WISDOM NO. 3

In the postseason the three most important factors are pitching, pitching and pitching.

IS THAT REALLY A THING?

The theory makes sense. All No. 5 starters can take a seat. Even some No. 4 starters won’t necessarily get a regular turn. And with everything on the line, managers tend to have quicker hooks than during the regular season, which makes a strong bullpen even more important.

HOW DOES IT IMPACT THE PHILLIES?

When they’re at their best, the Zack Wheeler-Cristopher Sanchez-Aaron Nola trio can compete with any another team’s Top 3. But as good as Wheeler, a legit Cy Young candidate has been, he did give up eight earned runs in one start this year, seven in another and six in yet another. Sanchez has blossomed this year but has pitched only once in the postseason. Nola had a 4.91 ERA in six September starts.

Thomson has several bullpen arms he feels comfortable with in high leverage situations (Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Carlos Estevez, Orion Kerkering, Jose Alvarado, Jose Ruiz) and, again, few teams can match that sort of depth.

But, as even Thomson has admitted, the more often he makes a call to the bullpen the greater the odds that just one might have an off day.

Just remember. All of this is of the utmost importance ... until the first pitch is thrown Saturday.  

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