As the Phillies' lead over the Braves has shrunk to just five games after another string of losses, their chance to secure the top seed in the National League has also decreased drastically with the Dodgers finding their rhythm.
Shohei Ohtani hit a walk-off grand slam on Friday night, shortly after the Phillies lost for the fourth time in five games. The Dodgers have won five in a row and 11 of 14.
The Phils are now 2½ games behind the Dodgers for the top record and home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs. Here were the standings entering Saturday:
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Dodgers: 77-52
Phillies: 74-54
Brewers: 74-54
The Phillies are tied with the Brewers but currently hold the tie-breaker after sweeping them at Citizens Bank Park June 3-5. The teams meet again for a crucial series from Sept. 16-18 in Milwaukee. With just one win, the Phils would win the season tie-breaker. This could end up being important because the 2-seed has a bye in the wild-card round while the 3-seed does not.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Dodgers might be able to run away and hide after getting healthy in the lineup. Mookie Betts has been back for 11 games but hasn't even gotten going yet. Max Muncy returned this week and has gone 4-for-10 with two doubles, two homers and six RBI.
Should the Phillies finish as the 2-seed, they'd get a bye in the wild-card round and face the winner of the 3 vs. 6 matchup, which as of now would be Brewers-Braves. There is no reseeding in the playoffs so the 2-seed is locked into facing the 3-6 winner.
If the Phils finish as the 3-seed, they'd face the 6-seed (currently the Braves), and then see the 2-seed in the NLDS if they advance.
For now, though, the first October opponent is secondary to the Phillies turning this around and just playing quality baseball. They've gone 2-8-1 in their last 11 series. They've lost 22 of their last 35 games.
Bryce Harper, who did have a good game on Friday night, has hit .210 with a .266 on-base percentage over his last 26 games. Typically, even when Harper is slumping, he draws his walks. He might hit .230 over a three-week span but it’s usually still accompanied by a .360+ OBP. But not since the break. Harper has 30 strikeouts and eight walks over that span.
Trea Turner, over his last 29 games, has hit .202/.231/.290. That’s a month’s worth of bottom-of-the-order production from your 2 and 3 hitters, each of whom are on long-term contracts worth $300 million or more.
It’s not just those two, but those two can carry the entire offense for weeks or months at a time and have done so in 2024.
Right now, the Phillies are not walking, they're striking out a ton, they're not using the opposite field and they've been susceptible to breaking balls. It's scarily reminiscent of the 2023 NLCS, when a hot lineup went ice-cold and was sent home by the D-backs.
And when the offense has had a decent night, like it did Friday with 11 hits, the starting pitching or bullpen has faltered.
“It’s kind of weird that we’re all struggling at the same time,” Turner said after the Phillies left Atlanta with a series loss. “Normally, when you have a good lineup, some guys (struggle) here or there. It’s kind of weird that a lot of us are there.
“I don’t think it’s a concern. It’s more weird for us. I don’t think it’s anything we’re necessarily doing wrong. We’re preparing. We’re doing the stuff we normally do. We’re having fun. We’ve got a good mindset. We’re not clicking.
“There’s still time left, obviously. We want to play well. It’s starting to get to that point in the season where it’s play well or go home. I don’t think we’re under any stress or pressure or anything like that, but more so we just want to play well. We know what we’re capable of and we expect it out of ourselves.”
There’s still time left, but with each loss, each series loss, the road through the postseason stiffens. And this club could sure use a first-round bye.