The Phillies all-time hits leader sat down with John Clark on the latest Takeoff podcast to give his opinion on who should be batting leadoff for the Phillies this season.
The end to incessant speculation and crystal-balling has nearly reached its end — Phillies Opening Day is about 24 hours away, 4:05 p.m. Thursday at Nationals Park.
It's a now-or-never year for the Phillies, who have maintained the same core for four seasons and are unlikely to return the same cast of characters if it can't make progress in 2025.
The offseason feels especially long when it follows a finish as disappointing as this group's October 2024. One of the beautiful things about baseball is the opportunity to bounce back from a tough loss the next day, and the most difficult losses are unfortunately also the ones that send you home for six months.
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But there was renewed optimism this spring in Clearwater. If you were to stack all 30 rosters against one another, the Phillies would be somewhere between second and fifth in any logical ranking and it's hard to put them lower than third.
Having the roster to do it is one part. Staying healthy is another. Getting hot at the right time — as the Phillies did for stretches in October 2022 and 2023 and the Mets did last fall — is another.
We've seen the ceiling of this offense. We've seen the Phillies beat teams 10-0 in the playoffs, homer five times off of a starting pitcher. But the floor needs to be higher when hitters aren't totally locked in, when the ball isn't bouncing their way. Thus the annual emphasis of controlling the strike zone and utilizing the whole field.
On to some specifics:
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The rotation
The Phillies' rotation in D.C. will be Zack Wheeler on Thursday, Jesus Luzardo in Game 2 Saturday and Aaron Nola Sunday.
Cristopher Sanchez will start Monday's home opener against the Rockies. Wheeler will start Wednesday, the fifth game of the season, on an extra day of rest. Taijuan Walker will start the next day to wrap up the Phils' first home series.
And from there, the Phillies would likely go on turn until Ranger Suarez is ready, with Walker following Wheeler because of the early flip-flop.
The lineup
The Phillies face Nationals left-hander Mackenzie Gore on Opening Day. He has reverse platoon splits; lefties have hit .279 with an .816 OPS, righties have hit .253 with a .753 OPS.
As a result, there might be five lefties in the Phillies' lineup against a left-handed starter: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Max Kepler, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh.
The Phillies will play Kepler every day in left field. They've said they want to and will play Marsh more in center against lefties. But both will need to hold their own against same-handed pitching to show it's not worth starting Edmundo Sosa or Johan Rojas over them more than occasionally.
As for the top of the order, the much-debated Schwarber vs. Trea Turner leadoff topic might conclude with the boring answer of "both." Manager Rob Thomson has discussed potentially leading Turner off against a lefty, Schwarber against a righty.
The upside of moving Schwarber down a few spots is that two-thirds of his home runs as a Phillie have been solo shots, and the likelihood of him batting with men on base would be significantly higher a spot or two after Harper and Alec Bohm than a spot or two after the eight- and nine-hitters.
The downside of moving Schwarber down a few spots is that he led the NL in walks last season and had a .366 on-base percentage. Turner's OBP as a Phillie has been .328. That needs to increase.
The injured list
Suarez will begin the year on the IL because of his back. The Phillies don't think it's a severe injury, but it's another back issue for a pitcher who has dealt with several. He'll need a few weeks to build back up once he's throwing again, so Walker has a spot in the rotation for a little while.
Weston Wilson suffered a Grade 2 oblique strain the day before spring training games began and was expected to miss six weeks. This is about the four-week mark. Once Wilson is ready to ramp back up, the Phillies will let him find his timing at Triple A. He has a minor-league option remaining so he doesn't need to be activated onto the big-league roster right when his rehab assignment is over if the Phils feel he does need more time. But his skill set is one they could sure use — right-handed bat with pop and speed who could realistically play six different positions.
Matt Strahm dealt with a left shoulder impingement early in camp and tore a fingernail packing his bags to leave Clearwater, but it sounds like he'll be ready to go for Opening Day.
The division
The Braves will be better. Ronald Acuña Jr. is expected back from his ACL injury in May. Spencer Strider could be back in late April or May. Those two returns alone are equivalent to adding two $300 million players in free agency.
The 2024 Braves were ravaged by injuries and underperformance from players like Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy and Matt Olson. Chris Sale and Marcell Ozuna vastly exceeded expectations. Overall, the Braves should be a 92-to-95-win team. Same for the Phillies.
The Mets are loaded, too, but have more questions on their pitching staff. There's talent and upside, but their season-opening rotation projects as Clay Holmes, Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill, Griffin Canning and David Peterson. While they'll get Sean Manaea (oblique strain) and Frankie Montas (lat strain) back at some point, it still doesn't look like a Top-10 rotation. The bullpen is just OK behind Edwin Diaz, whose fastball averaged 95 mph this spring compared to 97 previously. Maybe things break right in New York, maybe they're shopping aggressively for pitching in June and July. The offense, specifically the top of their order, is going to do damage.
The NL East race should be tight all year, unlike 2024 when the Phillies led by at least five games every day after May 19.
The schedule
The first two series are on the lighter side against the Nationals and Rockies. Colorado has the inside track to being the National League's worst team again this year.
That's offset by the next two series, at home vs. the Dodgers and in Atlanta. Two fun early-season tests.
The Phillies see every team in the division in April, then face only the Braves in May around Memorial Day. They end the season with 20 NL East games in their final 35.
There are three West Coast trips — May 19-25 in Colorado and Sacramento, July 7-13 in San Francisco and San Diego leading into the All-Star break and September 15-21 in Arizona and Los Angeles.
The Phillies are, fortunately, middle of the pack in travel miles this year after going everywhere from Seattle to London in 2024.
The expectations
It's World Series or bust, even with how much the Dodgers loaded up. Beating L.A. will be a monumental task for any team this season because the Dodgers don't just have the superstars atop the lineup, they now also have a deep and high-ceiling rotation and three top-tier late-inning relievers in Tanner Scott, Blake Treinen and Kirby Yates.
But the Phillies are probably the most talented, deepest and well-balanced team after the Dodgers, in either league. Some clubs have better lineups, some have better overall pitching staffs, but the Dodgers and Phillies have the best combinations.
The Phils beat them five out of six games last year, which means nothing other than they know they have it in them. The timing of the two regular-season series — so early in April, then right before the regular season ends — should only add to the drama.