WASHINGTON — For the second time in four years, Zack Wheeler dominated in the month of September to cap off a Cy Young-caliber season.
And for the second time in four years, he's locked in an extremely close race for the award all starters covet.
The Phillies could have made it easier on him with run support in his final start Saturday but they were stifled in seven of nine innings by Mackenzie Gore and the Nationals' bullpen in a 6-3 loss.
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The Phillies have been outscored 15-4 in back-to-back losses in D.C. after clinching a playoff bye on Wednesday at home. They are now locked into the 2-seed. The Dodgers will have home-field advantage in the NLCS if they advance. The Phils have it over the other five National League teams.
The Phillies' NLDS opponent will be either the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Mets or Braves. They cannot face the Padres, who are locked into the 4-seed.
"We'd like home-field advantage but it's not the end of the world," Wheeler said. "We've still got home-field advantage for a little bit of it at least and we just gotta get there. We'll worry about that later."
Wheeler was his typical overpowering self, striking out 11 and cruising until rookie James Wood's two-run, opposite-field homer in the bottom of the sixth. The pitch count was manageable and he and Rob Thomson had discussed a few days in advance letting Wheeler reach 200 innings as long as he wasn’t risking an injury to get there. If it's not an stress-filled outing, Sunday should be the same with Aaron Nola, who is 5⅔ short.
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Based on traditional statistics, workload, advanced metrics and his consistent excellence in the highest-pressure starts of his career, Wheeler has been the best pitcher in baseball since 2020, his first year with the Phillies. Yet there's a possibility that the 1A of this era might not win a Cy Young because of circumstances outside his control. Pitchers like Wheeler lull you into thinking it's easy, but staying healthy and doing what he's done year after year since 2020 is nothing to take for granted.
Wheeler finished 16-8 with a 2.57 ERA, striking out 224 and allowing the lowest rate of hits in the league.
"I just told him it's been a hell of a year," Thomson said when asked about the conversation with Wheeler when he removed him at exactly 200 innings. "That's Cy Young-worthy for me."
In 2021, Wheeler (141 voting points) finished just behind Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes (151) in the Cy Young race. Wheeler pitched 46⅓ more innings, the equivalent of eight extra starts for Burnes. It was a polarizing result that only looks worse in retrospect.
This time, it's Chris Sale. The 35-year-old-lefty leads the league in wins (18-3), ERA (2.38) and strikeouts (225) and has the lowest home run rate in baseball. He also has the narrative on his side — aging, oft-injured former ace who surprisingly vaulted back to the top tier nearly a decade after a string of Cy Young near-misses himself.
"I did the best I could," Wheeler said. "Chris had a really good year also and is deserving of it for sure. It's pretty cool to see him come back from missing the past four years or whatever it was. Good for him and happy to see him be back to Chris Sale.
"It's the goal — these days it's getting 200 innings, 200 strikeouts, get some wins, try to help the team as best as I can. I didn't feel as consistent as the numbers probably look but I got the job done and I'm happy with it."
Wheeler has the advantage on Sale in WHIP (0.96 to 1.01), opponents' batting average (.192 to .216) and innings (200 to 177⅔).
He pitched to a 1.89 ERA over his final 11 starts to keep pace. Those 11 starts represent the longest streak in Phillies history of two runs or fewer. At this point, their ERAs are close enough that Wheeler's innings advantage could cancel out the difference in the minds of some voters.
Wheeler had a 1.55 ERA in nine starts against teams in the National League playoff field.
He held right-handed hitters to the second-lowest OPS (.439) in the majors in the last 50 years, or as long as platoon splits have been tracked.
It was a historically good season for Wheeler, his best as a Phillie. He was signed in March to a three-year, $126 million extension covering 2025-27 — the fourth-highest per-year number in baseball history behind Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. He added a splitter to his arsenal and talked in spring training about his hope that the pitch would take him to an even higher level. He mentioned the Cy Young award as his target.
And then he went out and exceeded expectations over 32 starts.
He said he didn't feel as consistent as the numbers, but the numbers are what they are. Did this feel like the best season of his career?
"When I step back and look at it, probably so," he said. "I felt a little more dominant in '21 but I'm not really worried about that right now."
Wheeler will pitch Game 1 of the NLDS at Citizens Bank Park for the Phillies, no matter the opponent. He will be able to pitch a theoretical Game 5, as well, on five days' rest. It's a big deal for the Phillies to know they'll have him starting 40% of their games in a round.
Wheeler picked up his eighth strikeout to begin the bottom of the fifth Saturday and to that point had allowed just one hit and no runs. Luis Garcia then singled up the middle and Wood hit a long fly ball that carried just over the wall in left for a two-run homer.
The Phillies tied the game in the top of the eighth on a two-out, 0-2 homer from Trea Turner, his 21st. Jose Ferrer's next pitch was up-and-in near Bryce Harper's head and Harper and Ferrer had words after an inning-ending strikeout. The benches and bullpens cleared but order was quickly restored.
The Nationals' winning runs came against Jeff Hoffman in a rare ugly appearance. Wood tripled to lead off the bottom of the eighth and scored on a Keibert Ruiz single. Dylan Crews extended the inning with two outs and Joey Gallo hit a three-run homer. Hoffman allowed an earned run in only nine of 68 appearances this season.
The only piece of unfinished business with home-field advantage for the Phillies pertains to the World Series. They'll clinch it over the Yankees and Guardians with a win Sunday.
Of more immediate concern is the lineup. The last thing a playoff team wants before a five-day layoff is an ice-cold weekend against one of baseball's worst pitching staffs and that's exactly what the Phils are experiencing.
"It's so different," Turner said of the playoffs. "You're gonna play a good quality team, everything's on the line, guys are gonna pitch a little different, managers are gonna manage different.
"Finishing good (in the regular season) doesn't matter, finishing bad doesn't matter. We haven't played the best over the last week or so but once that postseason starts, all that's behind you and it's about competing in that moment."