The Phillies will start Cristopher Sanchez in Game 2 of the NLDS and Aaron Nola in Game 3, manager Rob Thomson announced Friday afternoon.
It was already known that the Phils would start their ace, Zack Wheeler, in Saturday's Game 1, but Sunday's Game 2 came down to Sanchez or Nola.
Sanchez was far better this season at home (2.21) than on the road (5.02), a major factor in the decision. It wasn't just about Sanchez' home success, though, it was also about how Nola's calmness and playoff experience could factor into a high-pressure start in enemy territory.
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"Just looking at playing the Mets, going into Citi Field, I think it's going to be a pretty hostile environment," Thomson said. "Knowing Aaron Nola, you probably won't see any different type of excitement out of him.
"Looking at Sanchy's home-road splits, I just thought it was the smartest thing to do. … It's really amazing the steps that he's taken, the growth that he's had, not only physically, but mentally and emotionally. This guy started the year at 92, 93 mph, really commanding the baseball, and now he's 95, 96, touching 97 and maintaining his command. The changeup is a plus-plus pitch. The slider, he's landing. Gone deep in the games. Held his composure. He's just grown leaps and bounds."
The pitching matchup for Saturday's 4:08 p.m. series opener is Wheeler against Mets right-hander Kodai Senga. Senga made just one start all season, on July 26 against the Braves. He missed the prior five months with a shoulder injury and suffered a calf strain in that game that ended his regular season.
It won't be a long outing for Senga and he could be piggybacked by either left-hander David Peterson or righty Tylor Megill. Peterson pitched seven innings last Sunday and the ninth inning Thursday in Milwaukee.
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"I think that's certainly the advantage of not having to go play the wild-card (series) is that your guys are fresh, and we have them lined up the way we want to use them," catcher J.T. Realmuto said. "Obviously there's something to going and winning a wild-card series and getting to take that momentum into this Division Series. For us, it was good to be able to set things how we want and make sure our guys got the rest they needed."
Just having Wheeler is another advantage. The Phillies know that if the series goes the full five games, they'd get two starts out of him. He's not bulletproof, but he's as close as it gets.
"I was part of the World Series in 1997, Cleveland Indians vs. Florida Marlins," president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recalled this week. "Two of the games that we lost, we had Kevin Brown, who was basically the best pitcher in the National League that year, vs. Chad Ogea, who was the fourth, fifth starter for the Indians. And we lost both games, at home. And we still won the World Series. So you just don’t know."
Sunday's Game 2, also at 4:08 p.m., will pit Sanchez against right-hander Luis Severino.
Nola's counterpart in Game 3 on Tuesday at Citi Field will likely be lefty Sean Manaea.
The Phillies faced Severino twice in September and Manaea once. All three were quality starts.
"From the scouting perspective I think (the familiarity) sort of helps us, because there's not a whole lot of work to do," Thomson said. "You're always trying to find an edge. I don't know if there's a disadvantage on one side or the other, really. Go out and play our game."