John Clark and Danny Pommells discuss who the more favorable matchup would be for the Phillies in the NLDS.
Wednesday night played out perfectly for the Phillies, with the Brewers coming back in the bottom of the eighth inning to beat the Mets, 5-3, extending their wild-card series to a decisive third game Thursday.
It means one more night of both teams having to use key relievers and a starting pitcher they'd need in the NLDS.
It also means that if the Mets win, they'll have just one day off between the wild-card round and Game 1 of the NLDS (Saturday at 4:08 p.m.) after spending September 22 through October 4 on the road.
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The Mets will start left-hander Jose Quintana in Game 3. The Brewers will start rookie right-hander Tobias Myers.
The Phillies' likeliest Game 1 opponent if they face the Mets is lefty David Peterson, who last started on Sunday and pitched to a 2.41 ERA after August 1.
The Phils faced Peterson on September 15 and then again on September 20. The first time, he allowed one run over 7⅔ innings, a game-tying double in the bottom of the eighth to Buddy Kennedy. The Phillies walked off against Edwin Diaz the next inning.
On September 20, Peterson allowed five runs in 3⅔ innings to the Phils.
Philadelphia Phillies
Several Phillies have hammered Peterson in their careers, several haven't solved him at all. Alec Bohm is 7-for-21 with two doubles and two homers. Nick Castellanos is 5-for-10 with a double and four RBI. Bryce Harper is 8-for-19 and has reached base in half his plate appearances. Weston Wilson, who figures to play a role against lefties in the postseason, is 2-for-5 with a pair of doubles.
On the other side of the coin, Kyle Schwarber is 1-for-16 with 10 strikeouts, J.T. Realmuto is 3-for-17 and Trea Turner 3-for-16.
If the Brewers advance past the Mets, their starter in Game 1 of the NLDS would be either right-hander Aaron Civale or a left-handed opener. Civale held the Phillies to one run over five innings on September 16 in Milwaukee. He went 6-3 with a 3.53 ERA in 14 starts after being acquired by the Brewers on July 3. He doesn't go deep into games but that doesn't really matter come October when managers are aggressive with bullpen usage.
Righty Colin Rea is a more distant candidate for the Brewers. He was hit hard in each of his last two starts and converted to relief throughout September after blowing 43 innings past his previous career-high.
The Brewers could be better off, though, using a lefty opener in the first inning against the Phillies like Jared Koenig, Aaron Ashby, DL Hall, Bryan Hudson or Hoby Milner. Hudson and Milner were left off Milwaukee's wild-card round roster, mainly because the Mets are so right-hand dominant. At least one would likely be added to the NLDS bullpen against the Phillies. The Brewers used an opener 10 times this season.
Shortly after Phil Maton blew the save in Milwaukee on Wednesday, the Padres finished off the Braves in San Diego to advance to the NLDS against the Dodgers. A two-game sweep is the more common occurrence in the wild-card round — in fact, only twice in 12 series since MLB changed the playoff format has the Best-of-3 gone to a do-or-die Game 3. The other instance also involved the Mets, who lost to the Padres at home in 2022.
"I'm watching the games and the good part about these two teams is we just played 'em so we pretty much know them already," manager Rob Thomson said of the Brewers and Mets, who the Phillies faced 10 times in their final 16 games.
"We've already done a lot of advance (scouting) work but you're always building information as you go. Sometimes teams do things a little bit differently in the playoffs. They go to their bullpen a little bit earlier, they set up matchups a little bit earlier. So you take note of that."
