By most measurable metrics, to repurpose the famous Jimmy Rollins quote going into the 2007 season, the Phillies are the team to beat against the Mets in this year’s National League Division Series.
Intangibles can’t be defined the way numbers can, though. And even without a thermometer to take the temperature of the participants going into the most recent iteration of this ancient rivalry, there’s little dispute that New York will be considered the hot team when Game 1 gets underway at 4:08 p.m. Saturday at Citizens Bank Park. Any Phillies fan can recite from memory what that means.
In the two years since the current format was put into place, five 100-win teams have come off their five-day bye rested and ready only to be ambushed by a wild-card entry that had to scrap and claw just to get that far.
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In 2022, the Phillies were that team. They were eight games under .500 at the end of May. They came on strong but didn’t claim the final wild-card spot until the last weekend of the season. They closed the season with 10 straight road games at Chicago, Washington and Houston before opening the playoffs at St. Louis. Instead of exhausting them, it seemed to create a foxhole mentality. They upset the Braves in the NLDS and went all the way to the World Series.
So far, the Mets have followed an eerily similar script. Eleven games under through June 2. Best record in baseball after that. Didn’t clinch a playoff spot until a makeup doubleheader on Monday. Even had a similar road gauntlet leading up to Saturday with stops in Atlanta, Milwaukee, then back to Atlanta and a return to Milwaukee before finally checking into their Philadelphia hotel.
They’ve been playing with postseason urgency for weeks, including a heart-pounding come-from-behind win to nail down their spot against the Braves on Monday and to advance against the Brewers on Thursday.
By contrast, the Phillies were 33-34 after July 13.
Philadelphia Phillies
Which is just one of the reasons why, as crucial as Game 1 of any postseason series is, there are multiple reasons to suspect that this opener could have an even more outsized impact than usual.
“This game is, it's such a game of momentum,” Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto said before Friday’s workout. “Success in baseball, it's very contagious. So when you start gaining confidence and you start feeling good about yourself and you see your teammates succeed, and then you come through in a big spot, that's extremely contagious and it just gives you confidence going forward.
“I think that's something you're seeing with the Mets right now. They're a really hot team, they have a lot of momentum, and that's very similar to us in 2022. You get in late, you're riding the high, and then you just roll with that confidence and it takes you through.
“I think it's important for us to be able to come out and start well in this series and try to put an end to the momentum they've clearly gained.”
To break it down further:
- Four of the five above-mentioned 100-win teams that were upset in the DS lost Game 1.
- The Phillies endlessly tout their home-field advantage, and why not? They were 54-26 (.675) at The Bank, the best home record of any team in baseball. They were 41-41 on the road, the only team still playing that didn’t have a winning record away from home.
A Phillies win on Saturday would reinforce the notion that they’re all but unbeatable at home. A Mets win would erase that edge (with two of the remaining games, if needed, at CBP and two at Citi Field). It would also be the Phils' third straight home playoff loss dating back to last year against the Diamondbacks, further puncturing their image of invincibility in their own yard.
On paper, the pitching matchup couldn’t be more lopsided. The Phillies will start Zack Wheeler, who is a lock to finish first or second in the NL Cy Young voting this year. The Mets will counter with Kodai Senga, who pitched only 5.1 big-league innings this year because of a shoulder injury then a calf strain suffered in his season debut on July 26.
Senga went 12-7 with a 2.98 earned run average last season and was projected as the team's No. 1 starter this season. But Wheeler is not only one of the best pitchers in baseball, he’s been spectacular in the playoffs. In seven postseason starts, he has a 2.42 ERA and has allowed 36 hits in 63.1 innings for a 0.73 WHIP.
If the Mets can steal this game, it will not only increase whatever team-of-destiny vibe they might be feeling but increase their confidence if they end up facing Wheeler in a decisive Game 5.
The Phillies insist they’ll be able to flip the switch now that the postseason is here, that the rally towels and bright lights and national attention will make all the difference. If they come out flat again, that will have to create some doubt
“The Mets are very talented,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson cautioned. “They can beat you in a lot of different ways. They’re well-managed. They can steal bases when they need to. The defense is solid, starting pitching is really good. And, yeah, they're on a roll. [But] you can lose it, as you well know, watching us last year against Arizona. You can lose it awfully quick.”
Winning Game 1 would be a big step, even bigger than it always is, to make sure the Mets lose their mojo.