Phillies pitching plans, Arizona's strength, Harper's elbow and more

By beating the Braves in four games rather than five, the Phillies positioned themselves even better for the NLCS than they did for the NLDS.

They'll have their ace, Zack Wheeler, on the mound for Game 1 on two days of extra rest.

Aaron Nola will start Game 2 on one day of extra rest.

Ranger Suarez lines up for Game 3 on two days of extra rest.

And then the Phillies will need a No. 4 starter for the first time in the 2023 postseason. They have rostered Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sanchez in both the wild-card and Divisional Rounds but have not used either pitcher.

Walker has not pitched since September 30 at Citi Field. Sanchez pitched an inning of relief that day but hasn't started a game since September 24. When one of them starts in the NLCS, it will have been three weeks since their last outing.

"We had something prepared (for them) today but we're not going to be able to get on the field, so we'll have to do something shorter tomorrow," manager Rob Thomson said Saturday before an optional team workout.

The NLCS is a Best-of-7. The Phils can use Wheeler in Games 1 and 5. They can use Nola in Games 2 and 6. They can use Suarez in Games 3 and 7, with everyone on the staff other than the Game 6 starter likely available for that theoretical must-win game.

The Diamondbacks will use their ace, Zac Gallen, in Game 1 and can use him the same way the Phillies use Wheeler. Merrill Kelly will start Game 2 and can be used the same way the Phils use Nola.

Arizona's pitching staff beyond those two is its weakness. The D-backs used rookie Brandon Pfaadt in Game 1 of the wild-card series and he gave up three runs on seven hits over 2⅔ innings. Pfaadt had a 5.72 ERA in the regular season and his opponents hit .282 with an .862 OPS. He was better in the NLDS against the Dodgers, pitching 4⅓ scoreless innings.

The Phillies will have the pitching advantage with Suarez against Pfaadt, if that is indeed the matchup.

"Our top three, I'd put them against everybody, to tell you the truth, especially right now," Thomson said Saturday. "I feel really good about Ranger pitching against anybody."

Neither Walker nor Sanchez faced the Diamondbacks in the regular season. Thomson hasn't said which pitcher will start in the NLCS. Either one would likely have a short leash. Sanchez posted a 3.44 ERA in 99⅓ innings in the majors this season and had his best stuff in September, striking out 10 in two of his last three starts against the Braves and Mets.

Walker went 15-6 with a 4.38 ERA in 31 starts, pitching a career high 172⅔ innings. He fit the description of innings eater, but you don't need as many innings eaten in the playoffs when you're deploying high-leverage relievers earlier in games. First innings were a major issue for Walker all year — he allowed 24 runs for a 7.04 ERA. He didn't allow more than 15 runs in any other frame. How will three weeks off play into that?

After Pfaadt, Arizona doesn't really have a No. 4 starter and might end up using an opener in a bullpen game.

The D-backs' most dangerous hitters are lefty Corbin Carroll, righties Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and switch-hitter Ketel Marte. Their catcher, Gabriel Moreno, has homered three times in five playoff games.

"Their whole team, during the Dodgers series, was hot. We've got to be aware of that," Thomson said.

The Diamondbacks love to run and use their athleticism. Carroll stole 54 bases in 59 attempts. Outfielder Jake McCarthy, the nine-hole hitter against righties, stole 26. Even Walker went 11-for-11.

"Didn't have to read the reports to know they're really athletic and they've got a lot of speed," Thomson said. "They play tremendous defense, they cover a lot of space, they run, and when you think they're done running, they'll run some more. They've got some thump in the middle of their lineup, good pitching. This is a really good club. It's no coincidence they were in first place out there in the West."

The Phillies have handled the running game well in their two playoff series, better than their opponents. Some of that has been J.T. Realmuto with quick exchanges and strong throws. Some has been the Phillies' pitching staff simply limiting baserunners.

A big part of it is their pitchers being quicker to the plate. Nola has incorporated a slide step over the last month and it hasn't just helped control base stealers, it's also disrupted the timing of hitters. He felt for years that the slide step negatively affected his stuff, but it isn't right now. Closer Craig Kimbrel, who led the majors in pitch clock violations in 2023, has also tried to speed things up.

"I feel pretty good about it right now. If you asked me that question a month ago, I would've had a different answer," Thomson said. "But our guys have been conscious of it, trying to speed up to give J.T. a chance.

"The coaching staff, we got together and talked to certain guys that we need to speed up a bit. Certainly, Aaron's done a tremendous job at it. There's been a conscious effort throughout the staff."

The Phillies will be at full strength for Game 1 Monday night at Citizens Bank Park. They had a scare with Bryce Harper in the eighth inning of their NLDS clincher when Braves first baseman Matt Olson inadvertently ran into the elbow Harper had surgically repaired last Thanksgiving.

Harper clutched the arm immediately as a hush came over the boisterous crowd. But he was back out for the ninth inning 10 minutes later and said afterward it was just his funny bone.

"He's good, he's good to go," Thomson said. "He was in here today and he's good to go."

Disaster averted.