Reasons other than offense why Phillies lost the NLCS

The primary reason why you haven't seen a zillion new videos of the Phillies celebrating, why their postseason ended in heartbreak Tuesday night was the inability of an expensive, experienced lineup to produce when it mattered most.

The Phillies ended Game 7 of the 2023 NLCS without a hit in their final 17 plate appearances. The 2022 World Series ended with the Phillies going 9-for-98, batting .092 over the final 30 innings.

The team is built to slug, and both years, the bats went cold with a few games to go. The Phillies went 2-for-17 with runners in scoring position in Games 6 and 7 against the Diamondbacks and 5-for-34 after Game 2.

It's the main reason they lost, but not the only reason. These were four others:

Reliance on Kimbrel

Craig Kimbrel was very good for a bulk of the season. Did you realize he had nearly the same ERA (3.26) as 1993 Mitch Williams (3.34)?

All Phillies fans remember Williams for are the 1993 playoff implosions and that will be Kimbrel's unfortunate legacy here, as well. He allowed the walk-off run in the ninth inning of NLCS Game 3, then blew a two-run lead in the eighth inning of Game 4, both Phillies losses.

Manager Rob Thomson went right back to Kimbrel in Game 4 a day after the 35-year-old walked two and said he didn't have it. The trust did not pay off as he was even worse in Game 4.

The NLCS opened with a Kimbrel save. It was his fourth straight scoreless appearance to start the playoffs. He retired 10 of the 12 hitters he faced in those four appearances. Those outings, Kimbrel's All-Star season and potential Hall-of-Fame track record are why Thomson felt comfortable giving him a second chance after Game 3.

But even in those four scoreless appearances, there were warning signs. Yanked fastballs. Falling behind in counts. Things didn't look nearly as bad as they looked in Games 3 and 4, but it wasn't the dominant Kimbrel from May through July.

The day after Kimbrel allowed the walk-off run, Thomson gave him a vote of confidence while speaking to a few reporters three hours before first pitch.

"I trust these guys," he said. "That's the first run he's given up in the playoffs. Has he scattered the zone at times? Sure. But if you look at our charts, everybody's had a little bit of a hiccup, but they've bounced back. So you've got to trust that."

You can't fault Thomson for using Kimbrel when he did in Game 3. It can be questioned whether Kimbrel should have been the clear-cut choice in such a high-leverage spot in Game 4. When he was used in the eighth inning with the Phillies up 5-3, Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, Seranthony Dominguez, Gregory Soto and Orion Kerkering had already pitched. Jose Alvarado was being saved for the ninth inning.

The suggestion is not that Thomson should have gone to someone like Michael Lorenzen instead, that just wasn't realistic. But there's an alternate universe where the Phillies come to the conclusion that they shouldn't go right back to Kimbrel the day after an erratic 24-pitch outing and thus alter their pitching decisions leading to that point. Hoffman was used in the third and fourth innings of Game 4 because Cristopher Sanchez couldn't command the baseball and recorded only seven outs. Hoffman, Strahm and Dominguez had all entered before the first out of the sixth inning.

Which leads directly into another factor in the NLCS loss …

Roster construction

Taijuan Walker was on the Phillies' playoff roster in each round and did not pitch. Lorenzen was on the roster for the NLDS and NLCS, pitching one inning against the Braves with the Phillies up eight runs and picking up five outs in Game 6 against Arizona with his team down three.

All along, Thomson said they were there for length, just in case. There is no auto-runner on second base in extra innings in the playoffs so games have a higher chance of going 13 innings. That became the only role in which the Phillies felt comfortable using Walker, who tweeted about disrespect in the early hours after Game 7 of the NLCS.

A side session Walker threw before the Arizona series did not give Phillies decision-makers the faith to start him in Game 4, but you would have figured that he'd have at least factored into the Game 4 plan after Sanchez went 2⅓ innings.

If Walker wasn't a realistic option in that scenario, why was he on the roster to begin with? Was it about not wanting to upset a player in the first year of a four-year, $72 million contract? If so, is that calculated risk of carrying one fewer usable player to avoid shattering that player's confidence or souring a relationship worthwhile?

Carrying both Walker and Lorenzen without having trust or a meaningful role for them ended up hurting the Phillies, limiting their flexibility. Lorenzen had past experience as a late-inning reliever and had success in that role from 2016-19. He was the Phillies' main trade deadline acquisition, and a big part of Dave Dombrowski's rationale was that Lorenzen had the ability to start in the regular season and relieve in the playoffs.

Then it was decided that bringing him in even for an inning, while also warming someone else up, wasn't worth it. If Lorenzen was used in the fourth inning of a scoreless Game 4, it would have pushed everyone else back — Hoffman, Strahm, Dominguez. It would have been Lorenzen's highest-leverage relief appearance as a Phillie, and maybe that in itself was the problem. There were chances before October 19 to test him out.

"When things don't go right, you're the village idiot," Thomson said midway through the NLCS. Hindsight is clearer than foresight. But had the Phillies at least given Lorenzen more opportunity to show what he had in a one-inning role, they could have given themselves time to earn confidence in him for the playoffs. And it could have made a difference in a series that came down to a run here or a run there.

Regression

It's a boring component of this all but might have been the most impactful. Baseball teaches us every month of every season that water finds its level. When a guy is scorching hot, it is not an indication that he will hit .410 for the season or finish with a 1.57 ERA. It is almost always the opposite — an indication that the numbers will soon normalize.

Aaron Nola had allowed two home runs in the span of seven starts before Game 6, then was taken deep twice in the second inning.

Ranger Suarez had allowed one or no runs in his first eight playoff games before being charged for three in Game 7.

Nick Castellanos went 8-for-15 with five home runs in four games before going hitless the rest of the way.

Teams also don't go undefeated at home, or trail after five of 99 innings as the Phillies did in their first 11 playoff games.

Regression hit this team hard.

Lights a bit too bright?

The Phillies thrust 23-year-old Johan Rojas and 22-year-old Kerkering into important roles almost immediately. Rojas was called up in mid-July to temporarily replace an injured Cristian Pache but seized the everyday center field job by playing elite defense and holding his own at the plate. Kerkering became a right-handed setup option after rapidly ascending the minor-league ladder and not allowing an earned run in his first seven big-league outings.

Rojas hit .302 in 164 regular-season plate appearances, which was not viewed as sustainable. The defense is so valuable that it makes up for a lack of offense, but 4-for-43 with one walk and 15 strikeouts is a different story. The Diamondbacks pitched around Brandon Marsh to load the bases with two outs in the fourth inning of Game 7 because it made more sense to attack Rojas. He struck out in his final plate appearance of 2023.

Kerkering was the reliever Thomson turned to up 1-0 in the seventh inning of Game 3 with the Phillies nine outs away from taking a 3-0 series lead. It was by far the highest-pressure spot he'd faced. He entered his four prior outings with the Phillies up by 10, seven, six and two runs.

Kerkering faced three batters and allowed two singles and a double to tie the game. As with Kimbrel, Thomson went right back to him the next day. The Phillies were up by three runs with runners on first and second and two outs in the seventh inning of Game 4. Kerkering walked Gabriel Moreno to load the bases and walked Christian Walker to force in a run.

They both have a lot of talent and should be here for years to come. Rojas might indeed be an everyday centerfielder for a decade. Kerkering could be a bullpen fixture. The Phillies got them important playoff experience this month but might have shown a bit too much faith.

At the end of the day, at the end of the season, it came down to the lineup fizzling out, chasing far too many pitches. But there were also choices made — some small, some large — that Phillies fans will lament for decades.