Keys, questions and observations for the Phillies and Marlins

Three Keys for the Phillies to beat the Marlins in the wild-card series:

1. Keep ringing the bell

Yes, the Phillies can steal a base. Yes, they can play small ball. But, like many teams in this era, they need to hit home runs to win. Don't believe it? Here are some numbers:

When they hit at least one home run in a game this season, they were 79-44 (.642). When they didn't, they were 11-28 (.282).

When they reached their low point, seven games under .500 through play of June 2, they had hit 58 long balls, almost exactly one per game. During the surge that followed, which carried them to the top wild-card spot, they hit 165 ... an average of 1.54 per game.

Power has a tendency to come and go, but the Phillies' chance of advancing increases dramatically if they can continue to hit baseballs over the fence.

2. Aaron Nola

Sure, winning the opener in a best-of-three series is crucial. But a case could be made that Game 2 matters even more, and that's where Nola comes in. It will be up to the longest-tenured Phillie to either help punch the team's ticket to the Division Series or keep them alive to try again in Game 3.

It's no secret that Nola has been an enigma this year. He's pitched well at times but he's been victimized by one big inning far too often. His 4.46 earned run average was well above his career mark of 3.60 coming into the season.

On the plus side, he had a 2.60 ERA in his last three starts and has been rested since September 26. So the Phillies are obviously crossing their fingers that he'll be able to carry that success into October.

J.T. Realmuto said he thinks mechanical changes Nola made late in the season working with pitching coach Caleb Cotham have made a big difference. "Since then he seems a little more crisp, his stuff is a little more sharp and he's been able to locate better," the catcher said. "So I think that's encouraging."

3. Realmuto and Bryson Stott

Realmuto's puzzling home-road splits have been much discussed. At Citizens Bank Park this season, he batted .198 with a .576 OPS and 6 homers. On the road, he hit .306 with a .951 OPS and 14 homers. His defense makes him a plus even if he doesn't hit, but every run counts in the postseason.

Stott was among the league's leading hitters as late as August 11 when he was batting .302. But he hit just .183 in his final 19 games ... and that included three hits on the last day of the season.

Three Phillies questions:

1. On paper, the Phillies should beat the Marlins. What could go wrong?

Quite a bit, actually. In a short series, it only takes a bad hop or two, a hung pitch in a critical situation, an ill-timed error that leads to a big rally to decide the outcome.

Beyond that, many of the Phillies' heavy hitters — Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Stott, Brandon Marsh — are lefty hitters. And the Marlins' starters for Games 1 and 2, Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett, are both left-handed. So are closer Tanner Scott and bullpen arms A.J. Puk, Steven Okert and Andrew Nardi.

It's going to be big for our right-handed bats to get the job done," said Realmuto, referring to himself, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos. "But our left-handed batters hit lefties pretty well. It's not like we're going to get zeroes out of them."

Luzardo was 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two starts against the Phillies this season.

2. How will Craig Kimbrel be used out of the bullpen?

Manager Rob Thomson has continued to publicly profess confidence in the veteran closer, pointing out that Kimbrel's velocity has remained up, even though he had only two saves after August 28 and none after September 11.

The manager has indicated his bullpen usage will be dictated by matchups. But with Jose Alvarado and Jeff Hoffman pitching well, Gregory Soto and Seranthony Dominguez showing signs of peaking at the right time and Ranger Suarez theoretically available, it will be interesting to see how much work Kimbrel gets in high-leverage situations. During the regular season, teams sometimes let players work out their problems under game conditions. There's no room for that in the playoffs.

Thomson made a point of mentioning that he thinks Kimbrel has quickened his delivery in recent outings, making sure he doesn't get tripped up by the pitch clock. "The last two outings, he made it his focus to get into his set quicker so he could get the ball out quicker," the manager said. "I think it's helped him out with his ability to throw strikes, his ability to get his arm in the right spot. He's looked really good in his last two outings."

In those games, Kimbrel retired all six batters he faced, striking out five.

3. Who will start Game 3, if needed?

That will depend on what happens in the first two games, but don't be surprised if it's Cristopher Sanchez.

Thomson dropped several broad hints that Suarez could well be used out of the bullpen in Game 1 or Game 2. "He's kind of like a Swiss-army knife because you can use him in so many different ways," the manager said. "You can use him for length if you get into an extra-inning game. You can use him in a leverage spot. And nothing really bothers him. So he could be a huge guy in the first two games, or Game 3 if we get there."

NOTES ON A SCORECARD

• The Marlins finished with a minus-56 run differential during the regular season, the largest ever for a team going to the playoffs.

• The Fish scored 668 runs, fewest in the National League.

• They were able to overcome those negatives by going 33-13 in one-run games.

• Miami took the season series from the Phillies, winning seven of 13 games. That included going 4-2 at Citizens Bank Park, where all the WCS games will be played.

• The Marlins had a losing record (66-67) going into play on August 31 but went 18-10 down the stretch to clinch the second wild card spot.

• They will be without two of their top starters, Sandy Alcantara (elbow) and Eury Perez ((hip). Also, NL batting champion hitter Luis Arraez has had only one pinch-hit at-bat since September 23 because of a sprained left ankle.

"I think it would have to be a lot for him not to be in there (Tuesday)," manager Skip Schumaker said. "He's looking forward to it.