And just like that, J.T. Realmuto becomes the top free agent on the market.
The Dodgers are reportedly closing in on a contract with Mookie Betts worth nearly $400 million over a 13-year span, a deal that will challenge Mike Trout's for the richest in baseball history. (The added-on portion to Trout's existing deal a year ago totaled $360 million over 10 years.)
With Betts soon to be off the board, Realmuto will headline this winter's class — if he gets there. The recent accounts of negotiations from Realmuto and Phillies GM Matt Klentak certainly have not painted an extension as imminent.
It's the first time in decades, perhaps the first time ever, that the Phillies will enter a season with the player set to headline that winter's free-agent class. They extended Cole Hamels midway through 2012, but Hamels would have been behind Zack Greinke in that class. They traded Scott Rolen during his walk year, but Rolen would have been behind Jim Thome that winter had he reached free agency. A season remained on Curt Schilling's contract the summer they traded him.
While Betts and Realmuto are completely different players, this deal should only increase the worth of Realmuto's next contract. For one thing, it shows that there is still a ton of money to be spent by contending teams. COVID-19's impact on baseball finances does not look like it will result in a lesser deal for Betts, so it shouldn't for Realmuto.
From Realmuto's perspective, if the magic number was $125 million or so before baseball was shut down, it should still be the number.
From a luxury tax perspective, the Phillies have at least $58 million coming off their books this offseason with the expiring contracts of Jake Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, David Robertson and Realmuto himself. So they have the wiggle room to get a deal done, they have a need to get the deal done, and the belief here is still that they will get a deal done.
MLB
It's going to cost more than the Phillies' front office may have thought earlier in July, though.
The list of teams able to sign Realmuto for what he's worth this winter is not long, especially in a year like this when most teams will adjust their offseason strategies. The Dodgers showed it can still happen, but not every team is as rich and ready to win as the Dodgers. In fact, the Dodgers themselves are a threat to sign Realmuto. They have a front office that covets a well-rounded skillset like Realmuto's, and they need to find some way to capture the World Series that has managed to elude them since 1988 despite 12 years of at least 90 wins and 13 playoff appearances in those 31 seasons.
The Dodgers have $20 million coming off their books this winter with Justin Turner alone, and their luxury tax figure for Betts will rise by only about $8 million from this year to next. So they'll have the ability to offer Realmuto a lavish deal ... unless their 25-year-old catcher and former first-round pick Will Smith can show he's the real deal. Smith had a solid rookie season but did hit .182 over his final 100 plate appearances.
The Mets have long been connected to Realmuto. They're in an interesting spot as they are expected to be sold soon. If that sale goes down ahead of free agency, the new ownership group could seek to make a splash with Realmuto. Or, a new ownership group could use a more measured approach for a team that has suffered steep financial losses in recent years.
The Yankees are always a threat for the top player in the free-agent market. They have a 27-year-old, two-time All-Star catcher in Gary Sanchez but Sanchez ain't J.T. He has more power than Realmuto but he hits about 30 points lower and his receiving and framing have been issues throughout his four-year run with the Yankees. He's also set to become more expensive over the next two years, his final two of arbitration eligibility.
Here's a nugget worth remembering as it relates to both the Yankees and Mets with Realmuto:
Beyond Realmuto, this winter's top free agents will be outfielder George Springer, infielder D.J. LeMahieu and starting pitchers Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka. It is not a deep class, specifically for position players.
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